Quick Overview
The Alexmccullough dashboard on Dune tracks Polymarket accuracy by comparing prediction market percentages against actual event outcomes.
About alexmccullough
What is alexmccullough?
Alexmccullough is a dashboard on the Dune platform. It tracks the precision of prediction markets on Polymarket. The tool compares actual outcomes against expected market percentages over various time intervals. It has data on the distribution of yes votes and specific game accuracy after events start.
The creator provides insights for users who analyze market bias. This resource has charts for total market percentages and historical win rates. It gives bettors a way to verify if prediction prices match real results. The data updates frequently to reflect current market trends.
Key Features
Outcome Verification
The dashboard compares actual outcomes against expected probabilities. It shows how often the favorite wins in specific probability brackets.
Market Bias Analysis
Data visualizations display the distribution of Yes versus No percentages. This metric identifies structural patterns in market predictions.
Temporal Accuracy Tracking
The tool measures prediction precision at five minute intervals after events begin. It tracks how quickly prices converge on the final result.
Historical Performance Records
Users access a database of past market results. These records help traders evaluate the long term reliability of prediction prices.
Pros & Cons
Pros
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Historical outcome comparisonCharts compare the final results of prediction markets against the odds offered before the event.
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Market bias analysisData visualizations show whether prices tend toward a yes or no bias across all active contracts.
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Real-time accuracy metricsAutomated queries update every few hours to show how well current prices match actual results.
Cons
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Single platform focusAnalysis is limited to Polymarket trade data and excludes performance metrics from other major prediction sites.
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Restricted category scopeCurrent charts focus on game markets and total volume counts rather than specific political or economic sectors.
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Limited explanatory contextVisualizations present statistical gaps without written commentary to explain the causes behind specific market deviations.
Frequently Asked Questions
This dashboard tracks how often Polymarket predictions match real outcomes. It compares the expected probability of an event against the final result. The analysis covers historical data to identify patterns in market accuracy.
The tool uses specific time intervals to check market data. One chart examines actual versus expected outcomes every four hours. Another chart analyzes game market accuracy in five minute intervals after a start time.
The dashboard includes a pie chart for the total market yes percentage across all events. This data helps users see if markets favor one outcome over another. It tracks whether the platform leans toward specific result types.
The page displays the percentage of correct predictions and market yes percentages. It includes tables with raw query results for deeper inspection. Users can see the exact data points for historical performance by clicking the query links.
Alex McCullough built this dashboard on Dune. The creator is a team member at Polymarket who focuses on customer success and site insights. This tool reflects data from several months of market activity.
